A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
